New research led by Australian climate scientists suggests the unequal effects of global warming will persist even after greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero, with poorer tropical regions among the last to benefit from any reduction in warming.
The study, led by Dr Andrew King and colleagues at the University of Melbourne and published in Environmental Research Letters, examined three sets of computer modelling experiments looking at temperature changes after global emissions reach net zero. The researchers compared the projected changes with countries’ gross domestic product.
The research found tropical areas have experienced greater warming relative to their historical temperature ranges than many higher-latitude regions, including wealthier parts of Europe and North America. The researchers found this uneven pattern would not simply disappear when global emissions reach net zero.
King said the length and scale of the remaining warming would depend partly on how much carbon dioxide is emitted before net zero is reached. The research also indicates that a net-negative emissions pathway, involving the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, could take many decades before the existing inequality begins to reverse.
Tropical ecosystems may also face prolonged impacts because some, including coral reef systems, have evolved within narrower temperature ranges than ecosystems at higher latitudes.
The findings were reported alongside new recommendations from the UN refugee agency and the Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness at the University of Melbourne about the relationship between climate change and statelessness. UNHCR said about 4.5 million people are currently known to be stateless, while noting the actual number is likely higher.
The recommendations highlight risks linked to climate-driven displacement, sea-level rise, extreme weather, loss of identity documents and disruption to civil registration systems. They call for measures including stronger birth registration and identity systems and safeguards to help children affected by climate-related disasters acquire a nationality.
The research adds to evidence that reaching net zero would not mean climate impacts disappear immediately. The timing and extent of future changes will depend on the emissions pathway followed and how the climate system responds.
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Our earlier report on Australia’s carbon offset system examines another aspect of the country’s climate policy and emissions debate.
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