Federal Health Minister Mark Butler has acknowledged that Victoria’s Labor government faces a difficult campaign ahead of the state election on 28 November, as a new Newspoll records a fall in Labor’s primary vote and a lead for the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis.
Speaking to ABC News Breakfast on Monday, Butler said the contest would be “a tough one”. He pointed to Labor’s 12 years in government and the difficult period Victoria experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic as factors contributing to the challenge facing Premier Ben Carroll and the state party.
The Newspoll, conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights for The Australian from 15 to 22 October among 1,017 people, puts Labor’s primary vote at 24 per cent, down four points from the previous poll. The Coalition is on 33 per cent, up two points, while One Nation has 20 per cent, up one point. The Greens recorded 14 per cent, also up one point.
On a two-party-preferred basis, the poll places the Coalition ahead of Labor by 55 per cent to 45 per cent. That represents a 10-point swing away from Labor compared with the 2022 state election result, according to the published figures. Polls are snapshots of voting intentions during the survey period and do not determine the final result.
The poll also reports that Opposition Leader Jess Wilson leads Carroll as preferred premier, 48 per cent to 34 per cent, with 18 per cent undecided. The findings suggest the election campaign will take place amid a fragmented primary vote, with One Nation attracting one-fifth of the primary vote in this survey.
Butler said it was unsurprising that Labor faced an uphill battle after a long period in office and difficult years for the state. His remarks were an acknowledgement of the challenge rather than a prediction of the election result. The final outcome will depend on voters’ choices across Victoria’s 88 lower-house electorates, as well as preferences and campaign developments in the weeks ahead.
The November election will determine whether Labor retains government or the Coalition forms the next Victorian administration. The latest poll provides an indication of the current political environment, but its figures carry sampling uncertainty and should not be treated as a guaranteed outcome.
Australia By Aussie will continue to follow the campaign, including party policies, electorate-level developments and further published polling as voters approach election day.
