Global oil markets are facing fresh uncertainty after attacks linked to the conflict involving Iran targeted Kharg Island, one of the most important oil export hubs in the world.
The island sits about 20 miles off Iran’s coast and handles the majority of the country’s crude exports.
Energy analysts say any disruption there could quickly affect global oil supply — and keep prices elevated.
Why Kharg Island matters
Kharg Island is effectively the heart of Iran’s oil economy.
Around 90% of Iran’s crude exports pass through the island’s terminals every day.
Because Iran is one of the world’s largest oil producers, any damage to infrastructure on the island could remove significant volumes of oil from international markets.
Even the threat of disruption can trigger price volatility.
War already disrupting global supply
The conflict involving Iran has already disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy trade corridors.
Roughly one fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes through the narrow waterway.
Attacks on tankers and shipping restrictions have already forced producers to slow exports.
Analysts estimate that about 15 million barrels of oil have effectively been removed from the market due to shipping disruptions.
Oilfields shutting down
The war has also forced some oilfields across the Gulf region to halt production.
Energy experts warn that temporary shutdowns — known as “shut-ins” — could reduce global output by up to 10 million barrels per day.
Restarting large oilfields is not simple.
It can take weeks or even months for production to return to full capacity once fields are closed.
Risk of record prices
Oil prices have already surged during the conflict.
International benchmark Brent crude briefly climbed above $119 per barrel before easing slightly.
However, analysts warn prices could climb even higher if infrastructure damage or further shutdowns occur.
Some forecasts suggest oil could exceed the previous record of $147.50 per barrel, set during the 2008 global energy crisis.
Global economic impact
Higher oil prices can ripple through the global economy.
Energy costs affect transport, manufacturing and electricity prices.
For households, this often translates into higher petrol prices and increased living costs.
With tensions still escalating in the Middle East, energy markets remain highly sensitive to any developments affecting oil supply.