One Nation is recording a sharp rise in national polling, but history and electoral mechanics suggest the party may struggle to translate support into lower house victories.
Recent national polls have placed One Nation’s primary vote at about 22 per cent, ahead of the Coalition in some surveys and strongest in regional and provincial seats. Leader Pauline Hanson has used social media and conservative media platforms to build momentum, attracting disaffected Liberal and National voters.
The surge includes high-profile support and funding, including backing linked to mining magnate Gina Rinehart, and the defection of former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce.
However, election analysts caution that strong polling does not guarantee electoral success in the House of Representatives. Preferential voting, candidate vetting, campaign costs and volunteer capacity remain major obstacles for minor parties.
Election analyst Antony Green has noted One Nation could win seats where its primary vote exceeds 35 per cent, but sustaining support and securing favourable preference flows will be critical.
One Nation has historically performed better in Senate contests, where lower quotas apply, than in lower house elections. Past surges, including in Queensland in 2017, failed to deliver expected seat gains once campaigns intensified.
