South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas is expected to secure a comfortable victory at the next state election, with Labor tipped to extend its dominance over the Liberal Party.
Political analysts say the opposition has struggled to mount a serious challenge during Malinauskas’ first term, with internal instability continuing to weaken its position.
Adelaide University emeritus professor of politics Clem Macintyre said the Liberals had been disorganised for much of the term and were unlikely to gain ground, particularly in metropolitan Adelaide.
The Liberal Party is now led by Ashton Hurn, who assumed the leadership in December, just months out from the election scheduled for 21 March.
Labor won government in 2022 with a decisive victory, securing 27 lower house seats to the Liberals’ 16. Since then, Labor has gained two additional seats at byelections, including Dunstan in 2023 and Black in 2024.
Flinders University associate lecturer in public policy Josh Sunman said Labor’s policy announcements had overshadowed the opposition’s lighter offering, despite challenges facing the government on state debt and hospital ramping.
The election will be held on 21 March 2026.
