Australia’s Aukus submarine program is advancing on paper, but critics say US supply constraints make any future sale increasingly uncertain.
Australia’s submarine agency says the $368bn Aukus agreement remains on schedule, insisting preparations for the transfer of US-built Virginia-class submarines are progressing as planned.
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull disputes that assessment, arguing the Australian government is downplaying structural limits within US shipbuilding capacity.
A recent United States Congressional Research Service report examined scenarios in which the US navy retains submarines originally earmarked for Australia, citing concerns about fleet readiness during a potential regional crisis.
The report outlines arguments both for and against selling three Virginia-class submarines from 2032, noting that US law prevents transfers if they would weaken American undersea capabilities.
Australia’s defence minister Richard Marles dismissed the report as commentary, saying US leaders remain committed to the agreement and the planned transfer of submarines.
Greens senator David Shoebridge said the report reinforces concerns that the arrangement prioritises US strategic interests over Australian operational control.
The Australian Submarine Agency said all three Aukus partners – Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom – remain committed to the agreement, describing progress as steady and methodical.
